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Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

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Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management Jeanne L. Nel1*, David C. Le Maitre1, Deon C. Nel2, Belinda Reyers1, Sally Archibald3,4, Brian W. van Wilgen1,5, Greg G. Forsyth1, Andre K. Theron1, Patrick J. O’Farrell1, Jean-Marc Mwenge Kahinda4, Francois A. Engelbrecht4, Evison Kapangaziwiri4, Lara van Niekerk1, Laurie Barwell1 1 Natural Resources and the Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Stellenbosch, Western Cape, South Africa, 2 World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa, 3 School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa, 4 Natural Resources and the Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa, 5 Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, Western Cape, South Africa Abstract Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that humaninduced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events. Citation: Nel JL, Le Maitre DC, Nel DC, Reyers B, Archibald S, et al. (2014) Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management. PLoS ONE 9(5): e95942. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0095942 Editor: Vanesa Magar, Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Mexico Received August 22, 2013; Accepted April 1, 2014; Published May 7, 2014 Copyright: ß 2014 Nel et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Funding: Financial support was provided by the CSIR (www.csir.co.za), Santam Limited (santam.co.za) and the Global Environmental Facility under the auspices of UNEP’s Project for Ecosystem Services (www.unep.org). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing Interests: The authors bring to your attention to their co-funded collaboration in this study with Santam insurance – a commercial enterprise. Santam’s role in this study was to help select a suitable study site and then to mainstream the knowledge the authors generated into their organisation and the broader insurance sector. The authors would like to emphasize that, once the study site was chosen, Santam had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Santam’s interest in this study was not for direct financial gain, but rather to use as ‘proof-ofconcept’ to inform further in-house business research on how to improve risk assessment techniques in a changing world. Both organizations in the collaboration (Santam and CSIR) committed similar amounts of funding, and the relationship with Santam insurance and the authors can be more correctly described as a ‘knowledge partnership’ than a ‘client-customer relationship’. The authors would also like to emphasize that the collaboration with Santam insurance does not alter their adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials regarding this manuscript. * E-mail: jnel@csir.co.za deals specifically with changes in the incidence of natural hazards, which are expected to increase into the future. Changes in climate are expected to result in higher sea levels and increased hurricane activity, bringing more frequent and severe storm-waves that flood and erode coastal areas [2,3]. In many regions of the world, climate-induced shifts in the water cycle will result in more frequent and intense periods of flooding and drought [4,5]. Wildfires are also expected to become more widespread and frequent, being closely linked to hot, dry weather conditions and drought [6]. The anticipated increased incidence of natural hazards is not only attributed to climate change. There is a growing concern that rapid and widespread land cover change is leading to the loss of the buffering capacity that healthy ecosystems provide against these natural hazards [7]. For example, healthy mangrove Introduction Since the turn of the century, several major natural disasters have attracted international attention, including hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, floods in Thailand and the Indian Ocean tsunami. These disasters, along with countless more frequent disasters of smaller magnitude, have been responsible for the loss of at least a million lives over the last decade, with recovery often taking years and financial losses estimated to be in the trillions of US dollars [1]. Such disasters occur when extreme physical events – or ‘natural hazards’ – impact adversely on vulnerable and exposed communities and infrastructure, which are the human elements of disaster [2]. As a result, disaster risk is affected by changes in the incidence of natural hazard, as well as alterations in the patterns of societal exposure and vulnerability. This paper PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org 1 May 2014 | Volume 9 | Issue 5 | e95942 Natural Hazards in a Changing World Bay, George, Knysna and Bitou municipalities). Eden regularly experiences extremely heavy rainfall events which, combined with the small, steep catchments in the coastal areas, often results in high runoff and flash flooding [25]. The most severe incidences of flooding generally coincide with large storm-waves associated with cut-off low atmospheric pressure systems over southern Africa [26]. Floods are also interspersed with prolonged periods of extremely low rainfall, and Eden is frequently declared a disaster area due to persistent drought conditions [27]. The area also naturally experiences moderately frequent fires (every 10–13 years) due to the co-occurrence of its indigenous, flammable vegetation (‘fynbos’), periods of hot, dry weather, and readily available sources of ignition [28]. Intense wildfires pose significant risks when associated with high population densities, and the intensity of wildfires is further exacerbated by invasive alien trees, which increase the fuel loads [29,30]. Natural hazards in Eden coincide with diverse socio-economic contexts, which results in inequalities to prepare for, cope with and adapt to disasters. Direct damage costs between 2003 and 2008 were estimated to be more than 3.5 times higher than the average annual household income in the most vulnerable and exposed communities, providing an indication of the vulnerability of some resident communities [25]. Approximately 68% of Eden’s surface area is covered by indigenous vegetation, with agriculture (lucerne, vegetables and hops) and timber plantations respectively comprising 17% and 12% of Eden [31]. Urban areas are concentrated along the coast, and estimated to occupy just over 2% of the area. Eden has a 26% population growth rate [32], which is well above the national growth statistic of 15%, and which places considerable pressure on both natural resources and built infrastructure in the region [27]. Almost all the remaining indigenous fynbos (98%) is invaded by alien plants to some extent, which translates to approximately 12% of Eden being invaded at 100% density [31]. Climatically, Eden is located in a transition zone between a winter and summer rainfall regime [33]. Rainfall occurs throughout the year, peaking in autumn (March) and spring (October) with the lowest monthly rainfall occurring in June. The spring and autumn rainfall peaks coincide with increased frequency of cut-off low pressure systems over southern Africa [26], and about one of every five of these brings flooding and damage to the coastal areas [34]. Being a transition zone makes the area particularly susceptible to climate change, because the climate is influenced by changes in the circulation systems of both climatic regimes. An increase in annual maximum temperatures of about 1.2uC has been observed since 1960 [35]. While trends in projected future annual rainfall are weak relative to temperature [36], the combined effects of temperature, rainfall and evapotranspiration are amplified in the hydrological cycle and can have profound impacts on water resources in southern Africa [37]. ecosystems, coral reefs and coastal foredunes are able to dissipate wave energy, reducing the impacts of coastal flooding and erosion during storms [8,9]. Areas with intact mangroves were much less affected by the 1999 and 2004 Indian Ocean tsunamis, than areas where mangroves had been removed [10]. Likewise, healthy inland wetland ecosystems and riparian zones help to absorb peak flows and sediment during extreme rainfall events, reducing flooding and sedimentation hazards to downstream areas [11,12]. Invasion of natural vegetation by alien trees that use more water than the indigenous vegetation that they replace, exacerbates the effects of water scarcity in drought-prone regions [13,14]. Invasive alien trees can also increase fuel loads and thus wildfire hazard [15], or can turn an ecosystem that was not prone to burning into a flammable landscape [16]. This growing body of evidence that land cover change influences the frequency and severity of natural hazards presents new opportunities for managing and reducing risks faced by society, and forms the foundation of ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation. These approaches seek to manage, conserve or restore ecosystems and their associated ecosystem services to help people cope with the impacts of climate change [17]. Ecosystembased adaptation approaches can be used to complement or replace technological or engineering solutions to adaptation, and often present more cost-effective, self-sustaining and flexible alternatives in the long term [18,19,20]. Apart from enhancing the buffering capacity of ecosystems, these approaches often come with multiple co-benefits to humans, such as improved fisheries production [21], timber harvesting [22], biodiversity conservation [23], and recreational value [24]. A key challenge to incorporating ecosystem-based approaches into disaster risk reduction is quantifying the extent to which land cover changes influence the occurrence and consequences of natural hazards. Clear examples are needed to quantify the benefits of ecosystem-based approaches to disaster risk reduction. Such assessments will require, inter alia, understanding the multiple land cover and climate drivers of natural hazards, quantifying how ecosystems will respond to changes in these drivers, and examining trade-offs between ecosystem-based management relative to alternative solutions [19]. This paper describes a ‘proof of concept’ study which aimed to address the first two of these challenges, exploring how land cover and climate change might affect four natural hazards – floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves – in the south coastal region of South Africa. These natural hazards frequently affect southern Africa’s emerging economies and vulnerable communities. We limit the scope of this paper to natural hazards, but in the discussion reflect on translating natural hazards to disaster risk, which is the product of the likelihood of a natural hazard event occurring and its consequence on society. The intention of this proof of concept was to inform local authorities and businesses about local land cover drivers in their region and their potential for reducing the risk posed by natural hazards, thus contributing to comprehensive strategies for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. But beyond informing local and national stakeholders in South Africa, the methods and lessons developed in this study have broader implications for ecosystem-based approaches and their evidencebase globally [19]. Climate Data and Natural Hazard Models Four models were developed to examine how land cover and climate change influence the natural hazards of floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves in Eden. Particular sites and catchments within Eden were selected to facilitate the modelling of each hazard (Figure 1). We identified drivers of each hazard based on literature reviews and expert consultations, highlighting those which were identified as important, relevant, plausible, and for which adequate data were available. The climate change scenario was extracted from the A2 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) [38], while land cover change scenarios were based on published information and expert knowledge of the region. We then modelled the effect of the scenarios of change on each natural hazard (Table 1; Table S1). Methods Study Area The study area, hereafter ‘Eden’ (Figure 1), is 3 820 km2 in size and comprises the local authorities along the southern Cape coast of South Africa within the Eden District Municipality (viz. Mossel PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org 2 May 2014 | Volume 9 | Issue 5 | e95942 Natural Hazards in a Changing World Figure 1. The location of the hazard model study areas within Eden. The inset showing the location of Eden in South Africa. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0095942.g001 To explore the changes in flood, drought and storm-wave hazards, we produced simulations that respectively estimated return periods of extreme peak flow events, low flows and wave run-up events. The change in wildfire hazard was examined by calculating the change in fire intensities with future changes in fuel loads and climate. Climate projections. Projections of future climate, used by the flood, drought and wildfire models, were obtained using a regional climate model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) [39]. A multiple downscaling procedure was followed to obtain high resolution simulations of future climate change over southern Africa. In the first phase of the downscaling procedure, the sea-ice and bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures of the CSIRO Mark3.5 global climate model [3] was used as lowerboundary forcing in CCAM simulations performed globally at a quasi-uniform resolution of approximately 200 km [3,40]. The simulations used the SRES A2 scenario [38], which was the only detailed downscaled data for the southern African region. The A2 scenario represents a low mitigation, or high emissions, scenario implying rapid continued growth in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. It is thus appropriate in examining the impacts of extreme climate events, although we do note throughout the limitations of only having one climate scenario available. CCAM was subsequently applied in a stretched-grid mode, to obtain simulations of approximately 60 km resolution in the horizontal, over southern Africa. This CCAM modelling procedure has been shown to provide satisfactory simulations of annual rainfall and temperature distributions, as well as the intra-annual cycle in rainfall and circulation over the southern African region [40]. It also realistically simulates observed daily climate statistics over PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org southern Africa, such as the frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation events, and the cut-off low atmospheric pressure systems and tropical cyclones [40,41]. Climate data required for each natural hazard model were extracted for the period 1961– 2050, which included daily data for: rainfall, maximum temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity (Dataset S1). Modelling flood hazard. We developed a hydrological model for an upper catchment within Eden (Figure 1) that drains into a coastal lake near the low-lying town of Sedgefield, which has in the past been highly susceptible to flooding during heavy rains. The model explored how inflows to the lake are affected by catchment land cover and climate change. This upper catchment was chosen because it had reliable gauging weir data for calibrating simulated flows, and included the typical land cover found in Eden. The agrohydrological modelling system (ACRU) was used to simulate daily flows based on climate data, physical catchment characteristics (particularly soils) and land cover [42]. ACRU contains a soils and vegetation database that was developed specifically for South African conditions, and has been widely used, both locally and elsewhere [43,44]. We used this database, together with 30 m resolution land cover data [45], to identify five ‘hydrological response units’: pine plantation, clear-felled pine plantation, wattle plantation, indigenous forest and fynbos. We constructed a model for enfocar la importancia de la producción mediática de los niños en su descubrimiento del mundo, sobre todo utilizando el periódico escolar y la imprenta. Asimismo las asociaciones de profesores trabajaron en esta línea e incluso la enseñanza católica se comprometió desde los años sesenta realizando trabajos originales en el marco de la corriente del Lenguaje Total. Páginas 43-48 45 Comunicar, 28, 2007 En el ámbito de los medios, también desde el principio del siglo XX hay ciertas corrientes de conexión. Pero es a lo largo de los años sesenta cuando se constituyeron asociaciones de periodistas apasionados por sus funciones de mediadores, que fomentaron la importancia ciudadana de los medios como algo cercano a los jóvenes, a los profesores y a las familias. Así se crearon la APIJ (Asociación de Prensa Información para la Juventud), la ARPEJ (Asociación Regional de Prensa y Enseñanza para la Juventud), el CIPE (Comité Interprofesional para la Prensa en la Escuela) o la APE (Asociación de Prensa y Enseñanza), todas ellas para la prensa escrita Estas asociaciones fueron precedidas por movimientos surgidos en mayo de 1968, como el CREPAC que, utilizando películas realizadas por periodistas conocidos, aclaraba temas que habían sido manipulados por una televisión demasiado próxima al poder político y realizaba encuentros con grupos de telespectadores. cipio del siglo XX, y nos han legado textos fundadores muy preciados, importantes trabajos de campo y muchos logros educativos y pedagógicos. La educación en medios ha tenido carácter de oficialidad de múltiples maneras, aunque nunca como una enseñanza global. Así la campaña «Operación Joven Telespectador Activo» (JTA), lanzada al final de los años setenta y financiada de manera interministerial para hacer reflexionar sobre las prácticas televisuales de los jóvenes, la creación del CLEMI (Centro de Educación y Medios de Comunicación) en el seno del Ministerio de Educación Nacional en 1983, la creación de la optativa «Cine-audiovisual» en los bachilleratos de humanidades de los institutos en 1984 (primer bachillerato en 1989) y múltiples referencias a la educación de la imagen, de la prensa, de Internet. La forma más visible y rápida de evaluar el lugar de la educación en medios es valorar el lugar que se le ha reservado en los libros de texto del sistema educa- 2. Construir la educación en los medios sin nombrarla El lugar que ocupa la edu- La denominación «educación en medios», que debería cación en los medios es muy ambiguo, aunque las cosas están cambiando recientemente. entenderse como un concepto integrador que reagrupase todos los medios presentes y futuros, es a menudo percibida En principio, en Francia, co- por los «tradicionalistas de la cultura» como una tendencia mo en muchos otros países, la educación en los medios no es hacia la masificación y la pérdida de la calidad. una disciplina escolar a tiempo completo, sino que se ha ido conformado progresivamente a través de experiencias y reflexiones teóricas que han tivo en Francia. Una inmersión sistemática nos permi- permitido implantar interesantes actividades de carác- te constatar que los textos oficiales acogen numerosos ter puntual. Se ha ganado poco a poco el reconoci- ejemplos, citas, sin delimitarla con precisión. miento de la institución educativa y la comunidad es- colar. Podemos decir que ha conquistado un «lugar», 3. ¿Por qué la escuela ha necesitado casi un siglo en el ámbito de la enseñanza transversal entre las dis- para oficilializar lo que cotidianamente se hacía en ciplinas existentes. ella? Sin embargo, la escuela no está sola en esta aspi- Primero, porque las prácticas de educación en me- ración, porque el trabajo en medios es valorado igual- dios han existido antes de ser nombradas así. Recor- mente por el Ministerio de Cultura (campañas de foto- demos que no fue hasta 1973 cuando aparece este grafía, la llamada «Operación Escuelas», presencia de término y que su definición se debe a los expertos del colegios e institutos en el cine ), así como el Minis- Consejo Internacional del Cine y de la Televisión, que terio de la Juventud y Deportes que ha emprendido en el seno de la UNESCO, definen de esta forma: numerosas iniciativas. «Por educación en medios conviene entender el estu- Así, esta presencia de la educación en los medios dio, la enseñanza, el aprendizaje de los medios moder- no ha sido oficial. ¡La educación de los medios no apa- nos de comunicación y de expresión que forman parte rece oficialmente como tal en los textos de la escuela de un dominio específico y autónomo de conocimien- francesa hasta 2006! tos en la teoría y la práctica pedagógicas, a diferencia Este hecho no nos puede dejar de sorprender ya de su utilización como auxiliar para la enseñanza y el que las experiencias se han multiplicado desde el prin- aprendizaje en otros dominios de conocimientos tales Páginas 43-48 46 Comunicar, 28, 2007 como los de matemáticas, ciencias y geografía». A pe- mente en todas las asignaturas. Incluso los nuevos cu- sar de que esta definición ha servido para otorgarle un rrículos de materias científicas en 2006 para los alum- reconocimiento real, los debates sobre lo que abarca y nos de 11 a 18 años hacen referencia a la necesidad no, no están totalmente extinguidos. de trabajar sobre la información científica y técnica y En segundo lugar, porque si bien a la escuela fran- el uso de las imágenes que nacen de ella. cesa le gusta la innovación, después duda mucho en Desde junio de 2006, aparece oficialmente el tér- reflejar y sancionar estas prácticas innovadoras en sus mino «educación en medios» al publicar el Ministerio textos oficiales. Nos encontramos con una tradición de Educación los nuevos contenidos mínimos y las sólidamente fundada sobre una transmisión de conoci- competencias que deben adquirir los jóvenes al salir mientos muy estructurados, organizados en disciplinas del sistema educativo. escolares que se dedican la mayor parte a transmitir Este documento pretende averiguar cuáles son los conocimientos teóricos. La pedagogía es a menudo se- conocimientos y las competencias indispensables que cundaria, aunque los profesores disfrutan de una ver- deben dominar para terminar con éxito su escolaridad, dadera libertad pedagógica en sus clases. El trabajo seguir su formación y construir su futuro personal y crítico sobre los medios que estaba aún en elaboración profesional. Siete competencias diferentes han sido te- necesitaba este empuje para hacerse oficial. nidas en cuenta y en cada una de ellas, el trabajo con Aunque el trabajo de educación en los medios no los medios es reconocido frecuentemente. Para citar esté reconocido como disciplina, no está ausente de un ejemplo, la competencia sobre el dominio de la len- gua francesa definen las capa- cidades para expresarse oral- La metodología elaborada en el marco de la educación en mente que pueden adquirirse con la utilización de la radio e, medios parece incluso permitir la inclinación de la sociedad incluso, se propone fomentar de la información hacia una sociedad del conocimiento, como defiende la UNESCO. En Francia, se necesitaría unir el interés por la lectura a través de la lectura de la prensa. La educación en los medios las fuerzas dispersas en función de los soportes mediáticos y orientarse más hacia la educación en medios que al dominio adquiere pleno derecho y entidad en la sección sexta titulada «competencias sociales y cívi- técnico de los aparatos. cas» que indica que «los alum- nos deberán ser capaces de juz- gar y tendrán espíritu crítico, lo que supone ser educados en los las programaciones oficiales, ya que, a lo largo de un medios y tener conciencia de su lugar y de su influencia estudio de los textos, los documentalistas del CLEMI en la sociedad». han podido señalar más de una centena de referencias a la educación de los medios en el seno de disciplinas 4. Un entorno positivo como el francés, la historia, la geografía, las lenguas, Si nos atenemos a las cifras, el panorama de la las artes plásticas : trabajos sobre las portadas de educación en medios es muy positivo. Una gran ope- prensa, reflexiones sobre temas mediáticos, análisis de ración de visibilidad como la «Semana de la prensa y publicidad, análisis de imágenes desde todos los ángu- de los medios en la escuela», coordinada por el CLE- los, reflexión sobre las noticias en los países europeos, MI, confirma año tras año, después de 17 convocato- información y opinión rias, el atractivo que ejerce sobre los profesores y los Esta presencia se constata desde la escuela mater- alumnos. Concebida como una gran operación de nal (2 a 6 años) donde, por ejemplo, se le pregunta a complementariedad source of circulating FGF-21. The lack of association between circulating and muscle-expressed FGF-21 also suggests that muscle FGF-21 primarily works in a local manner regulating glucose metabolism in the muscle and/or signals to the adipose tissue in close contact to the muscle. Our study has some limitations. The number of subjects is small and some correlations could have been significant with greater statistical power. Another aspect is that protein levels of FGF-21 were not determined in the muscles extracts, consequently we cannot be sure the increase in FGF-21 mRNA is followed by increased protein expression. In conclusion, we show that FGF-21 mRNA is increased in skeletal muscle in HIV patients and that FGF-21 mRNA in muscle correlates to whole-body (primarily reflecting muscle) insulin resistance. These findings add to the evidence that FGF-21 is a myokine and that muscle FGF-21 might primarily work in an autocrine manner. Acknowledgments We thank the subjects for their participation in this study. Ruth Rousing, Hanne Willumsen, Carsten Nielsen and Flemming Jessen are thanked for excellent technical help. The Danish HIV-Cohort is thanked for providing us HIV-related data. 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(2010) Serum FGF21 levels are elevated in association with lipodystrophy, insulin resistance and biomarkers of liver injury in HIV-1-infected patients. AIDS 24: 2629–2637. PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org 7 March 2013 | Volume 8 | Issue 3 | e55632
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